As we enter a critical phase in January 2025, the week ahead promises to be eventful, with a spotlight on pivotal economic data and political developments shaping market dynamics. The December US employment report provided a robust start to the year, revealing stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls and a drop in unemployment rates. However, subdued earnings growth tempered the optimism, leaving markets keenly focused on inflation trends and central bank policies.
This week, all eyes will be on the US CPI inflation report, expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory amid ongoing debates about the new administration’s fiscal plans. Meanwhile, international markets will navigate key events, including the Bank of Japan’s rate decision and several tier-one data releases across regions.
Below is a detailed day-by-day breakdown of anticipated events for the week commencing January 20, 2025.
Monday, January 20, 2025
- United States:
- Markets closed for a public holiday.
- Despite the closure, political developments under the new administration are expected to influence sentiment, especially in the New York session.
- China:
- Loan Prime Rate updates are scheduled during the Asian session, offering insight into monetary policy direction in the region.
- Key Focus:
- Updates from the US government dominate the narrative, with potential global spillover effects on markets despite limited data releases.
Tuesday, January 21, 2025
- United Kingdom:
- Employment data release during the European session.
- Traders will focus on wage growth figures and unemployment trends for potential implications on Bank of England policy.
- Canada:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will shape early North American sentiment.
- Global Focus:
- Continued monitoring of US political developments as traders adjust portfolios for potential policy shifts.
Wednesday, January 22, 2025
- United States:
- The highly anticipated December CPI inflation report is scheduled at 1:30 PM GMT.
- Headline CPI expected to rise to 2.8% YoY (range: 2.6% to 2.9%).
- Core inflation (ex-food and energy) forecast to hold steady at 3.3%.
- Market Implications:
- Persistent inflation could challenge Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, strengthening the USD and impacting US Treasury yields.
- The highly anticipated December CPI inflation report is scheduled at 1:30 PM GMT.
- New Zealand:
- CPI data release early in the Asian session.
- Expected to guide sentiment in regional markets.
- CPI data release early in the Asian session.
- Europe:
- European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde delivers a speech, providing insights into the ECB’s policy outlook.
Thursday, January 23, 2025
- United States:
- Key data releases during the New York session:
- Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims figures.
- Crude Oil Inventory data.
- Market Focus: Retail sales numbers in Canada and updates from US markets.
- Key data releases during the New York session:
- Global Focus:
- Quiet Asian and European sessions expected ahead of North American market activity.
Friday, January 24, 2025
- Japan:
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision, expected during the Tokyo lunchtime session.
- Markets will look for any adjustments to monetary policy amid ongoing inflation concerns.
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision, expected during the Tokyo lunchtime session.
- Europe:
- Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI releases from:
- France, Germany, and the Eurozone.
- United Kingdom.
- Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI releases from:
- United States:
- Key releases include:
- Flash Services and Manufacturing PMI.
- Existing Home Sales data.
- Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures.
- Key releases include:
Looking Ahead
The week is poised to offer investors valuable insights into the global economy’s trajectory in early 2025. From US inflation data to Japan’s monetary policy and multiple PMI reports, these events are expected to steer markets and inform strategies. As always, political updates and unexpected developments remain key factors to watch, particularly with a new US administration at the helm.
