As we move into the final week of February 2025, global financial markets are bracing for another round of potential volatility. While the macroeconomic calendar appears somewhat quieter compared to previous weeks, several key events have the potential to drive significant market movements. Notably, the German Federal Elections, which took place over the weekend, could create a volatile start to the week, particularly in the euro markets.
Additionally, market participants will be closely watching important economic data releases, particularly from the United States and Australia. The week culminates with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index, which could offer crucial insights into future monetary policy.
To provide a structured overview, here is a detailed breakdown of key economic events and market-moving developments by day.
Monday, 24 February 2025
- German Federal Elections Aftermath:
- Market participants will assess the impact of the election results on the euro.
- Potential for heightened volatility as election news filters through.
- Thin liquidity in early trading due to a Japanese market holiday.
- German IFO Business Climate Data:
- Scheduled for release early in the London session.
- Expected impact could be overshadowed by election-related market moves.
- General market sentiment: Likely cautious as investors digest political developments.
Tuesday, 25 February 2025
- Quiet session during the Asian and early European trading hours.
- Buba President Joachim Nagel Speaks:
- Speech could provide insights into the Bundesbank’s stance on inflation and monetary policy.
- Key US Data Releases (New York Session):
- CB Consumer Confidence Index:
- Provides a measure of consumer sentiment and potential future spending trends.
- Richmond Manufacturing Index:
- Offers insights into regional manufacturing activity and overall economic momentum.
- CB Consumer Confidence Index:
Wednesday, 26 February 2025
- Major Australian Economic Data:
- Australian CPI Data:
- Critical for Aussie-dollar traders, especially following last week’s hawkish rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Australian CPI Data:
- Key Japanese Economic Indicator:
- BOJ Core CPI Data:
- A measure of inflation trends in Japan, though likely to have less impact than the Australian CPI data.
- BOJ Core CPI Data:
- Limited European economic events.
- Key US Data Releases (New York Session):
- New Home Sales Report:
- A leading indicator of housing market strength.
- Crude Oil Inventory Report:
- Closely monitored by energy traders for supply and demand signals.
- New Home Sales Report:
Thursday, 27 February 2025
- European Economic Data Releases:
- Spanish CPI Data:
- Provides an inflationary snapshot of one of the Eurozone’s largest economies.
- Swiss GDP Report:
- Key growth indicator for Switzerland’s economy.
- Spanish CPI Data:
- US Economic Data Dump (New York Session):
- Preliminary GDP Data:
- Offers an early estimate of US economic growth for Q4 2024.
- Durable Goods Orders:
- A key measure of business investment trends.
- Weekly Unemployment Claims:
- Provides insights into labor market health.
- Pending Home Sales Index:
- A forward-looking indicator for the housing market.
- Preliminary GDP Data:
Friday, 28 February 2025
- Key Economic Releases Across All Major Time Zones:
- Asian Session:
- Tokyo CPI Data:
- Important for yen traders as inflation trends influence BOJ policy.
- Tokyo CPI Data:
- European Session:
- German Preliminary CPI Data:
- A crucial inflation gauge for the Eurozone’s largest economy.
- German Preliminary CPI Data:
- North American Session (Most Significant Market Movers of the Week):
- Canadian GDP Report:
- Provides a snapshot of Canada’s economic health.
- US Core PCE Price Index:
- The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure.
- Likely to be the most market-moving data release of the week.
- Chicago PMI Report:
- Offers insight into US business conditions and economic expansion.
- Canadian GDP Report:
- Asian Session:
Weekend Preview: Key Chinese Data Releases
Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Data (Saturday, 1 March 2025):
Traders should remain aware of any potential weekend headlines that might impact Monday’s open.
These figures could set the tone for market sentiment at the start of the following week.
