This week – the spotlight will once again be on the United States, with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to be the highlight of the week. Additionally, traders will be closely monitoring updates from the newly established US administration, as policy shifts and announcements could introduce potential volatility. To help navigate the week, here’s a comprehensive breakdown of key events by day:
Monday, 10 February 2025
- Potential market movement at the open due to the release of Chinese inflation numbers over the weekend, though their impact may be limited as they were largely in line with expectations.
- Additional Chinese economic data will be released during the Asian session, including the latest New Loans figures, which could impact risk sentiment.
- European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak, providing potential insights into the ECB’s policy outlook.
- Japanese markets will be closed, likely leading to a quieter Asian session overall.
- A relatively light calendar otherwise, with limited macroeconomic data scheduled.
Tuesday, 11 February 2025
- A shift in market focus towards central bank communications and monetary policy updates.
- Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak, potentially offering clues about the BoE’s stance on inflation and interest rates.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee, a key event that could drive market sentiment and influence USD movements.
- Additional speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Michelle Bowman and John Williams, may provide further guidance on the Fed’s policy trajectory.
- Market participants will be watching for any reaction to central bank commentary, particularly in the forex and bond markets.
Wednesday, 12 February 2025
- Expected to be one of the busiest trading days of the week, with significant data releases and central bank activity.
- The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a highly anticipated event, will be released during New York trading hours. The data is crucial in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy decisions.
- Jerome Powell will make another appearance in Washington, D.C., potentially reinforcing or adjusting his earlier remarks.
- The weekly US Crude Oil Inventory report will be released, influencing commodity and energy markets.
- Additional insights from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Raphael Bostic and Christopher Waller via scheduled speeches.
- Market volatility is likely to increase, particularly in the equity, forex, and bond markets, as traders react to inflation data and central bank commentary.
Thursday, 13 February 2025
- Inflation data takes center stage across all three major trading sessions.
- The Asian session will see the release of New Zealand’s Quarterly Inflation Expectations report, which could impact the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and regional risk sentiment.
- European session highlights include Switzerland’s CPI report and the UK’s GDP and Industrial Production figures, all of which could influence the British pound (GBP) and Swiss franc (CHF).
- In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be released shortly after the New York open, providing further insights into inflationary trends.
- The weekly US Unemployment Claims report will also be published, offering a snapshot of the labor market’s health.
- With multiple inflation-related data points on the schedule, markets may experience heightened sensitivity to economic indicators.
Friday, 14 February 2025
- A relatively quieter end to the week in terms of macroeconomic events.
- No major releases scheduled for the Asian or European sessions, allowing traders to consolidate positions ahead of the weekend.
- The only key data release for the day is the US Retail Sales report, which could influence consumer sentiment and broader market trends.
- Potential for risk-off sentiment or profit-taking ahead of the weekend, particularly if earlier data releases have led to significant market movements.
Key Takeaways for the Week:
US Retail Sales (Friday) – A potential market mover, particularly for equities and the US dollar.
US CPI Report (Wednesday) – The most critical event, likely to drive major market reactions and influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Central Bank Commentary – Multiple speeches from Fed, ECB, and BoE officials could provide crucial insights into monetary policy directions.
Global Inflation Data – From China, New Zealand, Switzerland, the UK, and the US, inflation-related releases will be closely monitored by traders.
