The upcoming week promises to be a pivotal one for financial markets, with a packed macroeconomic calendar led by key US employment data releases. Alongside the jobs data, major economic indicators from Switzerland, Australia, and Canada, as well as speeches from influential central bank figures, will shape market sentiment. Below is a detailed day-by-day breakdown of this week’s most important events, offering insights into the potential market impacts.
Monday, December 2, 2024
- Asia-Pacific Focus:
- Australia: Early in the day, retail sales data for the region will be released, providing insights into consumer spending trends and economic activity.
- European Markets:
- Eurozone: Final PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data will be released, though the impact may be muted compared to earlier flash estimates.
- US Highlights:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: One of the first significant data points of the week, giving clues about the health of the manufacturing sector.
- Federal Reserve Speeches:
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams are scheduled to speak, potentially offering hints about the Fed’s rate trajectory.
Tuesday, December 3, 2024
- European Session:
- Switzerland: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is due, offering insights into inflationary pressures within the Swiss economy.
- US Session:
- JOLTS Job Openings: The first of the week’s US employment metrics, this report sheds light on labor market demand.
- Federal Reserve Commentary:
- Remarks from Fed members Adriana Kugler and Austan Goolsbee are anticipated, keeping monetary policy watchers on alert.
Wednesday, December 4, 2024
- Asia-Pacific Developments:
- Australia: Key Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures will be published early, highlighting the region’s economic resilience.
- European Session:
- United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak, followed by a speech from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.
- US Session:
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: A key precursor to Friday’s employment report, providing a private-sector view of job creation.
- ISM Services PMI: A vital gauge of the services sector’s health and its contribution to overall economic growth.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks: The highlight of the day, Powell’s remarks could provide crucial insights into the Fed’s policy stance ahead of the December meeting.
Thursday, December 5, 2024
- Europe in Focus:
- UK: Construction PMI data is expected, adding another layer to the week’s European economic indicators.
- US Session:
- Weekly Unemployment Claims: An essential measure of the labor market’s week-to-week fluctuations.
- Canada:
- Ivey PMI: Canadian Purchasing Managers’ Index data will complement the broader view of North American economic trends.
Friday, December 6, 2024
- The Main Event: US Employment Data:
- Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): Market participants expect a significant jump in job creation, with a forecast of 190,000 payrolls added in November.
- Unemployment Rate: Anticipated to tick up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%.
- Average Hourly Earnings: Growth metrics will be closely monitored for signs of inflationary wage pressures.
- Canada:
- Employment Data: Parallel to the US releases, Canada’s labor market updates will also influence CAD performance.
- University of Michigan Sentiment Data: Provides insights into US consumer confidence and economic expectations.
- Market Expectations:
- High volatility is anticipated, especially during the US market open, as the employment data will serve as a critical input for Federal Reserve policymakers ahead of their December meeting.
Broader Themes to Watch
- US Federal Reserve Outlook:
- With inflation still above target and economic growth resilient, this week’s data could sway market expectations regarding a potential 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 18 meeting.
- Currency Movements:
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain under scrutiny, particularly as it approaches key technical support levels. A stronger-than-expected jobs report could bolster the USD and lift US Treasury yields.
This week offers a wealth of data and developments, making it a crucial period for financial markets. Investors, traders, and policymakers alike will closely monitor these events to gauge the health of the global economy and refine expectations for future monetary policy.
Categories: Market News
