The market is reassessing its views on the Fed’s future rate cuts, with expectations shifting towards later in the year. The ECB is likely to follow the Fed’s lead in easing monetary policy, but not before June. Inflation remains a concern, and a new supply shock in the Middle East could push US inflation higher.

USDCHF: The Franc Loses Its Luster

• The Swiss franc, the best G10 performer in 2023, is losing its shine due to the SNB’s reduced foreign exchange interventions and a dovish Fed.
• The USDCHF pair is expected to continue growing, with potential breakouts at 0.8705 and 0.872.

NZDUSD: Mixed Signals from Inflation and China

• The New Zealand dollar is showing slight gains after a 2% dip last week.
• Investors are awaiting inflation data on Wednesday, which is expected to ease further and potentially lead to RBNZ rate cuts.
• Technical analysis suggests a possible bullish reversal for NZDUSD.

AUDUSD: China’s Rescue Package Boosts Aussie Hopes

• The Australian dollar has seen a minor bullish reversal thanks to risk-on sentiment in global markets and China’s potential stock market stabilization measures.
• AUDUSD faces near-term resistance at 0.6640 and 0.6735.
• On the flip side, failure to hold at 0.6570 could negate the bullish tone.

USDJPY: BoJ Stays Put, but Ueda Hints at Future Policy Shift

• The Japanese yen is slightly lower after the BoJ maintained its ultra-accommodative monetary policy at its meeting.
• USDJPY may see further decline in the future, though the BoJ’s cautious stance should be considered.
• Technical analysis shows support at 146.98 and resistance at 148.44 and 148.76.

EURUSD: Euro Waits in Shadow of Fed as ECB Lags Behind

• The euro is fluctuating as traders revise their expectations for Fed and ECB monetary policy.
• The ECB meeting on Thursday is the main risk for EUR this week, with no surprises expected.
• Technical analysis suggests potential selling points at resistance levels 1.0936 and 1.0983.

Oil: Technical Levels

• Oil price is trying to move up from the range of 74.81 – 70.76.
• Consider purchases if the price consolidates above 74.81, with a target in the upper Target Zone of 80.25 – 79.26.
• Consider selling if the price returns below 74.81, with a target in the lower range of 71.26 – 70.76.

Gold: Technical Levels

• Gold is correcting to the short-term downtrend and approaching resistance at 2047 – 2043.
• Consider selling after testing this resistance, with a target at the January 17 low and potentially the lower Target Zone of 1963 – 1951.
• Consider buying if the resistance is broken, with a target at the next resistance level of 2070 – 2064.

Bitcoin: Technical Levels

• Bitcoin fell below $40,000, extending losses to more than 20% since the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs.
• The 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $37,000 could be the next test.
• The halving event in a few months could be a catalyst for further gains, but skeptics argue it may already be priced in.

The global market outlook is mixed with some key uncertainties, such as the Fed’s monetary policy stance and China’s economic situation. Investors should monitor these developments closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.