Global markets remain near record highs, but the next few weeks will be crucial as investors analyze data to determine when central banks might start easing monetary policy. Inflation trends and central bank rhetoric will be key drivers of market sentiment. The week could be volatile, with potential for price swings based on economic news and central bank rhetoric.
Last Week’s Recap:
- The RBNZ surprised markets by holding rates steady but maintaining a hawkish tone.
- FOMC minutes revealed concerns about inflation and a willingness to tighten further if needed.
- UK inflation slowed to 2.3%, raising hopes for a BoE rate cut, but core inflation remained high.
- Eurozone PMIs showed improvement, suggesting a potential delay in ECB easing.
- US PMIs also signaled economic growth, with services leading the way.
Key Events to Watch:
- Friday, May 31st: All eyes will be on the release of the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. This data point could significantly impact the US dollar and investor sentiment.
- Tuesday, May 28th: US Consumer Confidence data will provide insights into consumer spending habits.
- Wednesday, May 29th: Australian CPI inflation for April could influence the AUD and NZD.
- Thursday, May 30th: The preliminary estimate for Q1 US GDP is expected to remain unchanged. We’ll also get weekly jobless claims data and an update on pending home sales.
- Friday, May 31st: China’s Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data for May could trigger volatility in Asian markets.
Central Bank Speakers:
- Monday, May 27th: BoK Governor Ueda speaks in Tokyo, potentially impacting the Yen.
- Tuesday, May 28th: FOMC members Bowman and Mester could offer clues about future Fed policy.
- Wednesday, May 29th: SNB Chair Thomas Jordan speaks in Tokyo.
- Thursday, May 30th: SNB’s Thomas Jordan speaks again, this time in Seoul.
Other Important Data:
- Tuesday: Australian Retail Sales and CB Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: Australian CPI data, German Ifo data
- Thursday: Prelim UK and German CPI data, US Pending Home Sales
- Friday: Canadian GDP data alongside Core PCE
Categories: Market News
