The EUR/USD pair shows mixed signals as US PMI data strengthens the dollar, although technical indicators hint at a potential Euro bounce if it surpasses key resistance. Meanwhile, GBP/USD found support from dollar weakness but remains vulnerable due to soft UK data and potential rate cuts by the Bank of England. Similarly, USD/JPY’s trend stays bullish as the yen weakens on election concerns and economic contraction, but a continued rally for the dollar could lead to further upward moves. In commodities, gold prices have rebounded off support levels, with traders eyeing a potential upside amidst ongoing global uncertainties.

 

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EUR/USD

• Current Sentiment: EUR/USD faced downward pressure after US PMI data outperformed expectations, contrasting with Eurozone data, which remains weak. The pair appears to be in a technical position for a short-term bounce, supported by signs of momentum shifts in RSI and potential bullish engulfing candles. However, economic fundamentals favor the US Dollar as growth indicators in the US remain stronger, and monetary policy divergence weighs on the Euro.
• Support Levels: 1.0755, 1.0700, 1.0600
• Resistance Levels: 1.0800, 1.0840, 1.0900
• Forecast: EUR/USD could see a retracement toward 1.0800 if data from Germany today indicates a better business climate. A break above 1.0809, coupled with a cross on the MACD above the zero line, would reinforce a bullish outlook. However, if EUR/USD fails to sustain above 1.0800, it may revert to testing lower support levels.

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GBP/USD

• Current Sentiment: Despite weak UK PMI data and looming uncertainty from both the US election and the UK budget, GBP/USD is seeing support from a technical bounce, and some traders are positioning for a potential pullback. The pair’s uptrend hinges on USD fluctuations, particularly if BoE officials signal imminent rate cuts.
• Support Levels: 1.2940, 1.2800, 1.2750
• Resistance Levels: 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3250
• Forecast: GBP/USD may continue a corrective move toward 1.3000 in the short term. A daily close above 1.3100 would suggest a stronger retracement potential toward 1.3250. A failure to hold 1.2940 could see the pair revisit the 1.2800 mark, reinforcing its longer-term bearish trend.

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USD/JPY

• Current Sentiment: USD/JPY has been primarily bullish, with the Dollar supported by robust PMI results. Despite a brief correction, the JPY remains weak amidst uncertainty about Japan’s upcoming general election, which is adding downside risk.
• Support Levels: 151.64, 151.16, 150.50
• Resistance Levels: 152.52, 153.40
• Forecast: USD/JPY could test resistance at 153.40 if momentum remains intact. The pair is likely to stay within a bullish trend unless price action fails to hold above 151.16. A confirmed breakout above 153.40 would target further upside, while a dip below 150.50 could challenge the current bullish trajectory.

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Gold (XAU/USD)

• Current Sentiment: Gold has found strong support amid global economic uncertainty, with prices supported by DXY movements and investor demand as a hedge. Current levels above $2,720 are technically favorable for a potential bullish continuation if prices remain within the $2,720 – $2,728 range.
• Support Levels: $2,720, $2,700
• Resistance Levels: $2,750, $2,775
• Forecast: XAU/USD may extend gains if it can maintain support around $2,720. A rally toward $2,750 or higher is likely if prices clear $2,728 with bullish confirmation. Conversely, failure to maintain above $2,720 could see prices retreat to test $2,700, where further demand may arise.

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Summary Outlook

• EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Dependent on dollar strength; both show potential for short-term bounces within bearish trends.
• USD/JPY: Likely to continue its bullish trajectory unless there’s a significant policy shift from the Bank of Japan or an unexpected dollar decline.
• Gold: Continues to attract demand on geopolitical concerns but may struggle near $2,750 unless risk sentiment escalates.