The EUR remains under pressure amid mixed Eurozone data, while the USD strengthens, supported by cautious Fed commentary. The GBP shows resilience despite modest inflation expectations, with potential BoE rate cuts in focus. Meanwhile, the JPY weakens as the USD/JPY pair climbs, driven by a lack of U.S. rate cuts and expectations for Japanese inflation data later in the week. Gold sees a technical pullback after recent gains, hovering near key support levels as traders watch U.S. economic data and Fed signals. Overall, markets are influenced by central bank policies and inflation trends.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair has been in a bearish trend, pressured by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and expectations of further rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB). The euro remains under pressure as mixed Eurozone data and expectations of lower ECB rates limit its upward potential.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 1.0884, 1.0866, 1.0835
- Resistance: 1.0952, 1.0979, 1.1013
Outlook: The pair is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, especially with the cautious tone from Fed officials supporting the dollar. A consolidation below the 1.0884 level may lead to further downward movement, with targets at 1.0866 and potentially 1.0835. On the upside, a break above 1.0952 could signal a bullish reversal.
Forecast:
- Bearish Scenario: If EUR/USD breaks below 1.0884, it may decline towards 1.0866 and 1.0835. Expect more downside as long as ECB dovishness continues.
- Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 1.0952 could trigger a move toward 1.0979 and 1.1013 if economic data turns in favor of the euro.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is trading within a consolidation phase, with focus on upcoming inflation data. Falling UK inflation, coupled with high interest rates, is increasing speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut rates sooner than expected, creating bearish sentiment for the pound.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 1.3016, 1.2963, 1.2930
- Resistance: 1.3129, 1.3175, 1.3290
Outlook: The pair is testing key support levels at 1.3016. If inflation data comes out lower than expected, the pound could continue to weaken. However, if the BoE maintains a cautious approach to rate cuts, the pair could bounce from current support levels.
Forecast:
- Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 1.3016 could lead to a deeper fall toward 1.2963 and 1.2930.
- Bullish Scenario: If the pair consolidates above 1.3129, expect a potential move toward 1.3175 and 1.3290.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continues its bullish trend, driven by the strong U.S. dollar as investors price in expectations of no further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The pair’s movement is also influenced by Japanese inflation data, with the Bank of Japan expected to remain dovish.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: 148.91, 148.28, 147.50
- Resistance: 149.37, 149.95, 151.03
Outlook: The pair is likely to continue its upward momentum unless there is a shift in U.S. inflation data or strong dovish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. A push above 149.95 could open the way to 151.03, while a failure to maintain the 149.37 level may trigger a correction.
Forecast:
- Bullish Scenario: A break above 149.95 could send USD/JPY towards 151.03. Buyers are likely to maintain control as long as the dollar remains strong.
- Bearish Scenario: If the price falls below 149.37, expect a correction toward 148.91 and 148.28.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold has been oscillating between bullish and bearish trends, currently hovering below $2,665 resistance. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and mixed inflation data have supported gold prices, but signs of exhaustion suggest a potential bearish correction.
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: $2,641, $2,623, $2,602
- Resistance: $2,665, $2,667, $2,700
Outlook: Gold is at a critical juncture, facing resistance at $2,665. Failure to break this resistance could lead to further selling pressure, potentially pushing the price toward $2,641 and $2,623. However, if gold consolidates above $2,665, it could aim for $2,700.
Forecast:
- Bearish Scenario: If gold breaks below $2,641, it may continue to slide towards $2,623 and $2,602.
- Bullish Scenario: A move above $2,665 would likely trigger a rally towards $2,700, but momentum appears limited in the near term.
General Forecast Summary:
Gold: Likely correction toward $2,641, but bullish if it breaks $2,665.
EUR/USD: Bearish, key support at 1.0884.
GBP/USD: Consolidation, watch for breakdown below 1.3016 or rally above 1.3129.
USD/JPY: Bullish, targeting 149.95 and 151.03.
