The euro remains under pressure amid trade tensions and weak economic signals, while the pound continues its decline on rate cut fears and soft UK data. The yen holds steady in cautious trade as markets eye U.S.-Japan talks, while the Australian dollar softens ahead of China data and uncertain policy cues. The Canadian dollar trades sideways despite strong jobs data, weighed by tariff threats and oil weakness. Gold holds near highs, supported by safe-haven demand as global uncertainty grows. Bitcoin remains bold, pushing higher with strong momentum, though facing potential resistance near its long-term channel top.
🇪🇺/🇺🇸 EUR/USD Outlook – Euro vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals:
- Sentiment weakens amid persistent U.S.–EU trade tension.
- ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged this month, but markets are pricing in a rate cut later this year.
- Trump threatens additional tariffs on the EU, creating downside pressure on the euro.
Price Action:
- Slipped below the psychological 1.1700 mark; intraday bounce attempts remain weak.
- A breakdown below key support may open the way for further losses.
Support Levels:
- 1.1686, 1.1651, 1.1642, 1.1581, 1.1518
Resistance Levels:
- 1.1714, 1.1762, 1.1810, 1.1913
Forecast:
- Outlook is bearish unless buyers regain control above 1.1714.
- Consolidation under 1.1686 suggests likely path toward 1.1580 if trade tensions escalate.
🇬🇧/🇺🇸 GBP/USD Outlook – British Pound vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals:
- UK GDP contracts for two consecutive months, raising fears of recession.
- Bank of England expected to cut rates further despite inflation still above target.
- Seven-day consecutive decline suggests bearish pressure is entrenched.
Price Action:
- Weak rebound attempts with lower highs; support zone under pressure.
- Bearish bias remains unless price breaks above resistance zones.
Support Levels:
- 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3450, 1.3388
Resistance Levels:
- 1.3646, 1.3680, 1.3712, 1.3752, 1.3770, 1.4000
Forecast:
- Bearish trend intact; failure to hold above 1.3471 risks breakdown toward 1.3388.
- Reversal scenario only above 1.3680 with sustained momentum.
🇺🇸/🇯🇵 USD/JPY Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen
Fundamentals:
- Yen firmed slightly as trade tensions escalated, increasing demand for safe havens.
- Trump imposes 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, adding to global volatility.
- Domestic machinery orders remain weak but show slight improvement.
Price Action:
- USD/JPY hovers near 147.40 resistance; limited upside without fresh catalysts.
- Weak downward momentum signals potential consolidation phase.
Support Levels:
- 146.80, 146.13, 145.88, 145.28, 144.18
Resistance Levels:
- 148.28
Forecast:
- Medium-term bullish bias holds unless 145.76 is breached.
- Break above 148.28 could lead to renewed strength; failure may result in correction toward 145.80.
🇦🇺/🇺🇸 AUD/USD Outlook – Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals:
- Aussie weakens amid concerns over China’s slowing growth and easing exports.
- RBA surprised markets by holding rates; market now cautious on further easing.
- China’s Q2 GDP seen easing, which weighs on Australian trade-dependent outlook.
Price Action:
- AUD/USD trades near 0.6550 key pivot; direction unclear as consolidation continues.
- Bears hold slight edge as price shows signs of topping out.
Support Levels:
- 0.6562, 0.6550, 0.6446, 0.6394
Resistance Levels:
- 0.6570, 0.6582, 0.6597, 0.6650
Forecast:
- Downside more probable; break below 0.6550 may trigger fall toward 0.6446.
- Reversal scenario above 0.6597 targets 0.6650, though limited due to weak macro drivers.
🇨🇦 USD/CAD Outlook – U.S. Dollar vs Canadian Dollar
Fundamentals:
- Strong jobs report reduced pressure on BoC to cut rates at July 30 meeting.
- However, U.S. tariff threats and falling oil prices cap CAD strength.
- Inflation data due Tuesday could sway BoC’s next decision.
Price Action:
- USD/CAD remains in range between 1.3650–1.3730.
- Golden Cross formed but upside faces resistance at 1.3768.
Support Levels:
- 1.3691, 1.3651, 1.3612
Resistance Levels:
- 1.3730, 1.3768
Forecast:
- Holding above 1.3650 keeps bullish bias intact; above 1.3730 confirms continuation to 1.3768.
- A break below 1.3612 invalidates the bullish setup.
🌕 Gold (XAU/USD) Outlook – Gold vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals:
- Gold supported by risk aversion as global trade tensions flare up.
- Trump’s 30% tariffs increased safe-haven demand.
- EU’s restrained retaliation approach keeps further uncertainty alive.
Price Action:
- Trades near $3,350 with strong momentum; bullish structure confirmed above $3,322.
- Resistance zone between 3,390 and 3,410 could halt further gains short-term.
Support Levels:
- 3345, 3322, 3309
Resistance Levels:
- 3365, 3393, 3405, 3444, 3500
Forecast:
- Bullish trend may continue toward 3,390–3,410 before corrective dip.
- A drop below 3,322 could indicate trend exhaustion.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bitcoin vs U.S. Dollar
Fundamentals:
- Bitcoin rallies past $123k amid strong institutional demand and bullish sentiment.
- Market shrugs off risk aversion; crypto seen as alternative hedge.
- Next targets seen at psychological round numbers; profit-taking risk elevated.
Price Action:
- BTC breaks key embedded channel, testing 122,185 resistance.
- Support rests at breakout level of 117,500.
Support Levels:
- 117500, 112000, 109000
Resistance Levels:
- 123236, 125000, 130000
Forecast:
- Primary trend remains bullish while above 117,500.
- Pullback possible, but demand at dips likely to sustain momentum toward 125k and 130k.
📊 Summary Table: As ofJuly 15, 2025
| Asset | Bias | Key Support Levels | Key Resistance Levels | Forecast Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 EUR/USD | Bearish | 1.1686, 1.1651, 1.1581 | 1.1714, 1.1762, 1.1810 | Further downside likely unless above 1.1714 |
| 🇬🇧 GBP/USD | Bearish | 1.3509, 1.3471, 1.3388 | 1.3646, 1.3680, 1.3712 | Persistent weakness unless price reclaims 1.3680 |
| 🇺🇸 USD/JPY | Bullish | 146.80, 145.88, 145.28 | 148.28 | Upside may resume above 148.28; downside below 145.76 |
| 🇦🇺 AUD/USD | Bearish | 0.6550, 0.6446, 0.6394 | 0.6582, 0.6597, 0.6650 | Bearish below 0.6550; limited upside unless above 0.6597 |
| 🇨🇦 USD/CAD | Bullish | 1.3650, 1.3612 | 1.3730, 1.3768 | Uptrend continues above 1.3730; caution below 1.3612 |
| 🪙 XAU/USD | Bullish | 3345, 3322, 3309 | 3365, 3393, 3405, 3444 | Bullish trend may stall near 3,390–3,410 before pullback |
| ₿ BTC/USD | Bullish | 117500, 112000, 109000 | 123236, 125000, 130000 | Strong bullish continuation while above 117,500 |
Categories: ARFX News
