The week of August 12, 2024, is set to be crucial for global markets with key events in the US, UK, and New Zealand. The US will release CPI inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may cut rates, with markets pricing an 80% chance. The UK will focus on CPI inflation and wage data, which could affect future rate decisions by the Bank of England. Other important events include retail sales and industrial production data from the US and GDP and employment data from the UK.

This week, the macroeconomic data calendar remains relatively quiet, and investors are hopeful that the positive momentum from the last few trading sessions will continue. While there are a few key data releases to monitor, the main event is anticipated at the end of the week: the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming, where central bank leaders, including representatives from the Fed and BOE, will provide key updates that could influence the markets.

Here’s a day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:

Monday, August 19, 2024:

• The event calendar is relatively quiet with limited scheduled activities.
• The New York session is light on data releases, but Fed member Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak early in the session, which may influence expectations regarding interest rate cuts.

Tuesday, August 20, 2024:

• In Asian markets, China will announce any changes to the Loan Prime Rates, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, both of which could introduce some volatility.
• In Europe, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan will speak early in the session.
• The highlight of the day will be in the New York session with the release of Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
• Later in the session, Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Michael Barr are scheduled to speak.

Wednesday, August 21, 2024:

• There are few scheduled events across all trading sessions, with the primary focus being the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes at the end of the U.S. day.

Thursday, August 22, 2024:

• A series of Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI data releases are scheduled throughout the day, covering Australia, France, Germany, the UK, and the U.S. While not as impactful as CPI data, these figures are closely monitored as part of the inflation assessment.
• The U.S. session will also feature the usual weekly unemployment claims data.

Friday, August 23, 2024:

• Early attention will be on New Zealand with the release of the latest Retail Sales numbers.
• The main event will be in the U.S. session with the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey are expected to speak.
• Additionally, Canadian Retail Sales data will be released prior to the central bank updates.