Divergent paths for major currencies as inflation trends differ. Canadian Dollar weakens on persistent inflation, Australian Dollar slumps on weak China data, British Pound rises on surprise inflation hike. Central banks face cautious stances as they navigate inflation and economic slowdown concerns.
Canadian Dollar:
- Loonie weakens as inflation remains sticky at 3.4%.
- BoC likely on hold with interest rates despite hopes for early cut.
- Technical analysis: resistance at 1.3523 and 1.3552, support at 1.3474 and 1.3445.
Australian Dollar:
- Aussie plummets to 5-week low on weak Chinese data and hawkish Fed comments.
- China’s GDP and retail sales miss estimates, raising concerns about Australia’s largest export market.
- Technical analysis: AUD/USD breaks below support at 0.6552 and pressures 0.6519, resistance at 0.6608 and 0.6641.
British Pound:
- Sterling jumps on unexpected UK inflation rise to 4.0%.
- BoE likely to maintain “higher for longer” policy despite recession fears.
- Technical analysis: GBP/USD tests resistance at 1.2664 and 1.2709, support at 1.2592 and 1.2547.
Oil:
- Oil prices are stuck between $74.81 and $70.76, currently hovering near the lower bound.
- Buy opportunity: If oil dips below $70.76 and stays put, consider buying with a target of $74.81.
- Sell opportunity: If oil breaks through $74.81 and stays above, consider selling with a target of $66.31 or $65.32.
Gold:
- Gold is trying to break out of a downward trend.
- Sell opportunity: If gold falls below $2019 and stays put, consider selling with a target of $1963 or $1951.
- Buy opportunity: If gold holds above $2026 and rises, consider buying with a target of the January 12th high, then $2101 or $2089.
Euro:
- The euro continues to fall, hitting a new low yesterday.
- Sell opportunity: If the euro breaks below $1.0862 and stays put, consider further selling with a target of $1.0803 or $1.0795.
- Buy opportunity: If the euro holds above $1.0862, consider buying on a correction with a target of $1.0947 or $1.0994. After testing these levels, consider shorting again if the trend continues.
Cryptocurrencies:
- Bitcoin: Buy at $42,977 with a target of $46,000.
- Ripple: Buy at $0.568 with a target of $0.590.
- Ethereum: Buy at $2,572 with a target of $2,715.
US Dollar:
- The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts and recent economic data suggest a slower pace of monetary policy easing than initially expected.
- This could lead to further correction for major pairs if US retail sales data confirms economic strength.
Categories: ARFX News